以兩岸關係來評估ECFA的可行性

作為馬蕭團隊總統大選的兩岸政策重要訴求的「綜合性經濟合作協定」(CECA)，經一再琢磨之後，為避免被貼上政治標籤，被染上「一個中國」色彩，陷入「統獨爭議」框架，遂將兩岸之間的經濟合作協定初步定調為「兩岸經濟合作架構協議」(ECFA)，期待藉此架構讓兩岸經貿正常化、避免台灣被邊緣化，以及促進台灣經貿的國際化。2010年「東亞自由貿易區」即將成形，台灣能否成功藉由ECFA擴展國際經貿空間，尚可透過與其他國家洽簽FTA的機會，做為測試中國反應的試金石，並決定是否繼續兩岸其他協議的談判。此架構性協議該如何簽署，政府與民間各有不同的解讀，然而儘管政府刻意迴避政治爭議之餘，仍須一再重申堅持「不矮化主權、不開放大陸勞工、不擴大農產品進口」的「三不」政策，以及「保就業、保出口、保台商、保傳產」的「四保」原則。至於簽署架構性協議對台灣是好是壞，即是本文探討的旨趣。台灣經濟基礎再穩固，也無法承受參與東協的國家對台灣的貿易障礙，將迫使傳產再次外移以尋求生機。簽訂ECFA才有機會扣關東協，以免在面對未來全球化的競爭，左支右絀而一再被孤立。

As a keystone of Ma Government in Cross-Strait policy, CECA, then EFCA, was seen as a breakthrough of political stalemate yet normalized economics, avoided marginalization and enhanced internationalization. EFCA that substituted the previous CECA, is a dedicate framework to skillfully avoid the most controversial unification-independence issue that might arouse the unnecessary conflict of ideology in Taiwan. The Asian Free-Trade Area is to be formed in 2010 facilitated by ASEAN and China, thus, a domino effect would be seen with the new participants of Japan, South Korea...etc. Taiwan, geographically as a part of this area, would be a regret to be marginalized by China. Promised by government, EFCA would pay a proper attention on sovereign issue that Taiwan may not succumb to China. Yet, that promise still seemed its limit in at least half of Taiwan residents' mind that occupied with sovereign myth. It likely damages the development of its existing space in the international society. This article thus would like to further discuss if the EFCA conclusion be a thoughtful mean in achieving the end of extending economic ties with East Asian Nations.