美朝韓三邊互動下之半島安全環境 變化

Security Environment Changes of the Korean Peninsula under Trilateral Interaction among the United States, North Korea and South Korea

金正恩自2011年正式繼位成為北韓第三代最高領導人以來，於2013年3月宣布採行「經濟建設和核武力建設的並進路線」。2016年初起，因北韓重啟核試與頻密進行飛彈試射，使平壤與首爾的關係達到韓戰停戰以來新低點。文在寅2017年5月當選韓國第19任總統後，於就職演說中表示，將積極進行「穿梭外交」，與美、中、日協同合作，推動北韓「無核化」。美國自2018年初起即採取「極限施壓」式的經濟制裁，積極主導「無核化」發展走向，制約北韓不可繼續發展核武與彈道飛彈技術。另一方面，美國亦要求韓國必須全力配合，使兩韓的和解進程必須與美方因應北韓達成「無核化」的政策目標一致。本文試圖從韓國文在寅政府與區域安全的視角，探討韓國與北韓在區域的角色轉換與因應「無核化」策略，以及美朝韓三邊互動架構下對韓半島安全環境變化的影響。另一方面，本文亦檢視美國對北韓「極限施壓」的政策成效。2018至2019年期間，美朝韓三邊先後舉行2次「川金會」與3次「文金會」，使兩韓改善雙邊關係出現短暫的曙光，亦使劍拔孥張的韓半島安全局勢獲得降溫的空間。今（2021）年適逢北韓領導人金正恩上任十周年，以及美國拜登政府1月上任以來，表示仍保留與北韓透過外交對話的空間，惟拜登政府做法與川普時期採取「由上而下」領導人峰會與「大交易」的舉措有所不同。研判美國仍將透過聯合國安理會等國際建制對北韓維持經濟制裁，持續對北韓的人權問題強化施壓，並持續釋放對無核化「工作層級」的協商持開放態度，並在其協商過程中視北韓的態度與作為若有意就「無核化」採取實質行動，再逐步緩解對北韓的制裁行動並適時提供相應的經濟援助。

Kim Jong-un officially succeeded as North Korea's third-generation supreme leader in 2011and he first announced the dual policy on pursuit of simultaneous economic and nuclear development. Furthermore, due to North Korea restarted nuclear program and frequently conducts missile test in 2016, the bilateral relations between Pyongyang and Seoul hit a new low since the Korean War. Moon Jae-in became President of South Korea in 2017 May and announced that he will play an active role for shuttle diplomacy to cooperate with U.S., Mainland China and Japan to promote North Korea for denuclearization. On one hand, U.S. sustained "extreme pressure" of economic sanctions on North Korea since 2018 and lead the development of denuclearization negotiation to restrict North Korea on continuing to develop nuclear weapons and ballistic missile technology. On the other hand, U.S. also requested South Korea must fully cooperate with U.S., that is the reconciliation process between South Korea and North Korea must be consistent with the U.S. policy goal of achieving denuclearization. This paper tries to take the perspective from Moon Jae-in administration and regional security to explore the role transition and corresponding strategy on denuclearization of South Korea and North Korea and it will also try to probe the influence on security environment of the Korean Peninsula under the trilateral structure of the United States, North Korea and South Korea. This paper also examines the policy effectiveness of U.S. "extreme pressure" toward North Korea. During 2018 to 2019, tripartite actors, the United States, North Korea and South Korea had held two times of Trump-Kim summit and three times of Moon-Kim summit that not only promote temporary improvement of bilateral relations between North Korea and South Korea, but also cool down the tense security situation of the Korean Peninsula. Kim Jong-un Regime enters tenth year in office in 2021. U.S. Biden administration also took office in 2021 January and announced U.S. will still reserve the space for diplomatic dialogue with North Korea, however which will be quite different from Trump administration's "top-down summit" and "big deal" approach for denuclearization. The paper predicts that U.S. would maintain economic sanctions via the United Nations Security Council and other international regimes and put intensify pressure on North Korea's human rights issues. U.S. would also keep on releasing open-door for "working level" negotiations on denuclearization and observe if North Korea's attitudes and responses intend to take substantive actions on denuclearization that U.S. would ease the sanctions against North Korea gradually and provide corresponding economic assistance.