基於主成分分析的中國大陸房地產金融風險測度

Risk measurement of real estate finance based on principal component analysis：evidence from China

本文目的是研究中國大陸房地產金融風險的管控脈絡和量化分析。首先梳理了中國大陸房地產金融風險的歷史和政策脈絡，對於過去文獻的風險測度方法的研究也進行了回顧。然後，文章通過構建房地產行業的金融風險指標，利用主成分分析的方法對其進行綜合評價。結果發現，各項風險指標的權重相差不大。本研究在一個新的數據樣本中提供了實證證據，並揭示了房地產金融風險管控的相關策略。

The purpose of this research is to comb the historical frame and quantitative analysis of real estate financial risk in China. Firstly, the history and policy context of real estate financial risks in China are sorted out, and it is reviewed of the research on risk measurement methods in the past literature. Then, the article constructs the financial risk index of the real estate industry and uses the method of principal component analysis to evaluate it comprehensively. It turns out that the weights of various risk indicators do not differ much. This study provides empirical evidence by using new data samples and reveals the relevant strategies of real estate financial risk control.