日本切花進口需求分析

Analysis of Import Demand for Cut Flowers in Japan

日本為亞洲最大的切花進口市場，其主要進口的切花品項為菊花、康乃馨、蘭花、玫瑰和百合，而各品項切花的主要進口國家也不盡相同。本研究使用日本財務省關稅局2002年至2019年之日本進口切花月資料，並透過一階差分近似理想需求系統模型，估算日本從不同來源國進口各品項切花之自我價格彈性、交叉彈性和支出彈性，分析日本對於各國切花進口價格敏感程度，以及各品項切花進口來源國之間的競爭關係。實證結果指出，日本切花消費市場整體還是具有發展潛力，但對於蘭花和百合產品之各來源國較缺乏彈性，其主要進口來源國成長空間有限。另一方面，日本進口市場對於大部分進口百合的國家、厄瓜多的玫瑰和康乃馨、菊花進口大國的馬來西亞，其自我價格彈性都大於一，故這些國家可以採用降價策略來增加出口量，以利提高總出口金額。至於日本市場對於大部分玫瑰進口來源國，以及康乃馨進口大國哥倫比亞、蘭花進口大國泰國和台灣、百合進口大國韓國，其自我價格彈性則都小於一，故這些國家可以提升該品項切花價格來增加總出口金額，而所有切花來源國彼此之間都互為替代品，表示進口切花來源國都存在競爭關係。至於在區分海關的情況下，從不同海關進口切花則會產生的不同彈性結果，故有必要針對不同海關做相對應的市場區隔策略。

Japan is the largest cut flower import market in Asia, and its main imported cut flowers are chrysanthemums, carnations, orchids, roses and lilies, and the main importing countries of cut flowers are not the same. This study uses cut flowers imported monthly data from 2002 to 2019 by the Customs of the Ministry of Finance of Japan and employing the first-difference almost ideal demand system model to estimate the own-price, cross and expenditure elasticity of cut flowers imported by Japan from different source countries, and analyze Japan's sensitivity to the import prices of cut flowers in different source countries and the imports of cut flowers competitive relations between source countries. The empirical results indicate that the Japanese cut flower consumer market as a whole still has development potential, but it is relatively inelastic for the countries of origin of orchid and lily. In the Japanese market, most of the importing countries of lilies, roses and carnations from Ecuador, and chrysanthemums from Malaysia have their own price elasticity greater than 1. Therefore, these countries can adopt price reduction strategies to increase export quantity in order to increase total Export amount. On the other hand, most of the importing countries of roses, carnations from Colombia, orchids from Thailand and Taiwan, and lilies from Korea have their own price elasticities less than 1, so these countries can increase the price of cut flowers to increase the total export value. All cut flower source countries are substitutes for each other, which means that there is a competitive relationship between imported cut flower source countries. In the case of different customs, importing cut flowers from different customs will produce different flexible results, so it is necessary to make corresponding market segmentation strategies for different customs.