外交政策選擇的內因或外因探索：烏克蘭與吉爾吉斯的個案研究

Internal or External Factors: Ukrainian and Kyrgyzstan’s Foreign Policies

"過往探討一國外交政策發展，論者以為影響外交政策走向多因內部或外部因素所致，前者以為外交政策受國家內部政治發展影響甚鉅，外交政策變化和國內政權轉換過程有極大關連，多數外交決策分析研究途徑著重於此。相對於內部因素，其他研究指出外部強權才是影響國家外交政策走向的主要因素，國際權力體系格局才是主宰國家行為的關鍵所在。內部或外部因素影響這一群國家外交政策發展各有支持論調，作者在這個基礎上提出一些觀察。 本文選擇烏克蘭與吉爾吉斯作為觀察外交政策走向，並以此研究內外因素主導如何影響這兩國政策路線發展，選擇這兩國主要因素是烏、吉兩國近期內部有極大的政權震盪現象，如果我們能觀察到這些國家內部發生極大變動之際又能找出其與外交政策變動關聯，那麼就能確認內部因素的重要性。反之，即便內部因素產生激烈震盪但外交政策卻無甚改變，那麼我們就必須重新思考其他因素影響外交政策走向的可能。本文研究指出烏克蘭革命與該國外交政策走向同幅，外交路線配合政權更迭而更動；吉爾吉斯革命與外交政策走向無甚關連。本文的解釋是：一、革命對烏、吉兩國外交路線變化影響甚微，外部強權擠壓或大小國家間不對稱性依賴才是影響兩國路線主因；二、外部地緣政治因素是決定兩國外交政策走向根本性因素，革命造成的政權轉移對外交路線選擇影響，僅為放大、縮小或無甚關聯方式存在。"

The independence of post-communist countries following the dissolution of the Soviet Union is a crucial topic in academic research on contemporary international relations. The foreign policies and political development of these countries reveal various facets of their transitions. This paper focuses on the relationship between the regime transfer following the break up of the Union and the foreign policies of the countries in order to clarify the effects of internal/external factors on the aforementioned policies. This study examines two countries in order to clarify the relationship between regime transfer and foreign policies. Although the Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan have undergone frequent revolutions, they differ considerably in terms of their diplomatic directions. In the Ukraine, the foreign policy has changed following each revolution and the diplomatic direction has changed after each regime transfer. By contrast, the diplomatic direction of Kyrgyzstan has remained mostly unchanged despite the revolutions. In seeking to explain this difference we draw the following conclusions: (a) A revolution has only a small impact on foreign policy; it is the competition for power and asymmetric dependence that have a major impact. (b) Geopolitical divisions serve as a major factor affecting the foreign policies of the two countries. Revolutions affect foreign policy either in terms of their scope or are simply irrelevant.