中國大陸民眾的民主評價差異與民主支持：民主示範效果與愛國／民族主義的調節作用

Differences of Democratic Quality Assessment and Popular Support for Democracy in China: The Democratic Demonstration Effect and the Attenuation Effects of Nationalism and Patriotism

威權國家中的公民為何支持民主？既有的現代化理論、重分配理論或文化層面的解釋，都侷限於一國境內的社會結構變動或歷史遺緒。本文希望將國際因素帶入相關討論，並在「強制」與「競爭」兩種機制之外，提出國際間民主政體的「民主示範效果」，是促使威權大眾希望本國「模仿」民主政體的關鍵因素。此外，基於「軟實力」與「公共外交」的概念，我們認為國際間的民主大國，以及鄰近威權國家的民主政體，將更有機會藉由民主的實踐，刺激威權國家公民對民主的渴望。但同時，我們也認為威權國家中的愛國主義與民族主義情緒，將弱化民主示範效果對大眾民主支持的影響。本文以中國大陸、美國與臺灣，作為威權政體、民主大國與民主近鄰的案例，藉由分析2011、2015與2019年在中國大陸所進行的三波民意調查資料，我們發現人們對於美國與中國大陸，以及臺灣與中國大陸之間的民主品質評價差異，將顯著提昇人們的自由民主價值，並降低人們對威權政體的普遍體制支持。同時，我們也發現中國大陸民眾的愛國主義與民族主義情緒，將中和美國與臺灣對大眾民主支持帶來的示範效果。

Why do citizens in authoritarian countries support democracy more than the status quo? Modernization theory, the theory of redistribution, and the culturalist approach all focus on state-level social structural changes or on historical legacies. However, in this article, we bring international factors into the discussion and suggest that the ＂democratic demonstration effect＂ of global democracies, in addition to the two mechanisms of ＂coercion＂ and ＂competition＂, is the key reason behind the strengthening of the wishes of the masses in autocracies to ＂imitate＂ democracies. Furthermore, due to greater ＂soft power＂ and successful ＂public diplomacy＂, we believe that democratic superpowers, as well as democracies in neighbouring states, will have a greater chance to stimulate the aspirations for democracy of the citizens in authoritarian countries through their own democratic practices. At the same time, however, we also believe that patriotism and nationalism will weaken the ＂democracy demonstration effect＂ on popular support for democracy. To illustrate our theory and test our hypothesis, we take Mainland China, the United States, and Taiwan as cases of authoritarian regimes, democratic powers, and democratic neighbours, and analyze three waves of public opinion data conducted in Mainland China in 2011, 2015, and 2019. We show that differences in democratic quality assessment between Mainland China and its democratic counterparts significantly raises people's liberal and democratic values, and reduces their preference for one-party regimes. In addition, we have found that the patriotic and nationalistic sentiments of the Chinese people tends to neutralize the demonstration effects of the United States and Taiwan on popular support for democracy.