總體經濟因素與旅遊搜尋對來臺灣旅遊需求之探討

The Impact of Macroeconomics Variables and Tourism Search Index on Foreign Tourists Coming to Taiwan

本文以2017年外籍旅客來臺灣旅遊人數統計前十二名的國家／地區，利用追蹤共整合模型進行估計，以瞭解總體經濟變數與旅遊搜尋指數對外籍旅客到臺灣旅遊之長期與短期的影響方向。在長期關係結果顯示，觀光來源國的物價水準、觀光來源國人均國內生產毛額、臺灣當地的物價水準與旅遊搜尋指數皆對來臺旅遊的人數均呈現正向關係。在短期關係結果顯示，旅遊搜尋指數的變動量與來臺旅遊人數的變動量呈現正向關係，目的國臺灣的物價指數的變動量卻是和來臺人數的變動量是相反方向的影響。不論在長期或是短期，旅遊搜尋指數對來臺旅遊人數的解釋能力都是正向顯著，透過旅遊搜尋趨勢的分析，可提供政府與業者在制訂觀光與行銷政策時的重要參考依據。

This paper analyzes the macroeconomic variables and tourism search index in the top 12 countries where the foreign tourists coming to Taiwan in 2017. The panel co-integration model is used to estimate the relationship of the long-term and short-term of the macroeconomic variables and Google trend index on foreign tourists. The empirical results of the long-term relationship present a positive relationship for the consumer price index of the source country, the per capita gross domestic production, the local price index of Taiwan, and the Google trend index on the number of visitors to Taiwan. The results of short-term relationship analysis show that the changes of Google trend index is also positively correlated with the changes of the number of tourists coming to Taiwan, but negatively relationship between the change of the local price index of Taiwan and the number of tourists coming to Taiwan. Therefore, in both long-term and short-term relationships, the Google trend index is positively correlated with the number of tourists coming to Taiwan. The explanatory ability of Google trend index of tourists to Taiwan is remarkable, which can provide an important reference for the Government and industry in formulating tourism and marketing policies.