Covid-19疫情與脆弱國家安全危機：建立「脆弱性」的分析架構

The Pandemic of Covid-19 and Security Crisis for Fragile States: Developing an Analytic Framework of Fragility

全球新冠肺炎疫情（下文稱Covid-19）自2020年初爆發以來，染疫及死亡人數快速增加，亞洲、歐洲、美洲、非洲國家無一能倖免，疫情已嚴重衝擊全球安全、經濟及社會的穩定，世界衛生組織宣Covid-19告為全球公衛緊急危機。諸國因應疫情不及，國內醫療資源窘迫、經濟受創嚴重，迄2021年月1月中，全球確診人數已近900萬，死亡人數近200萬。受疫情波及高達223國家及地區，各國急增染疫人數，第一波疫情未歇，第二波、第三波疫情已至，全球每日新增染疫總數持續破新高，讓疫情國家疲於因應，美國、日本、英國等醫療先進國家宣告醫療體系危急。反觀醫療長期匱乏的脆弱國家（fragile states），不僅檢疫、醫護照護資源不足，因長年貧窮、動亂、衝突不斷的國內情勢，用水、環境衛生惡劣，而境內外大規模流動的難民及武裝份子，將成為疫病傳播的溫床。中長期而言，脆弱國家將是此次疫情最終的受害者。脆弱國家特徵為政府職能的弱化或崩解，其中呈現於醫療公衛體系匱乏或崩壞，平日已無法提供基本醫療照護，遑論疫情防治。高傳染率及致死率預警脆弱國家的危急情勢，將對全球衝突及安全治理造成沉重負擔。脆弱國家人數總計佔全球人口約17%，即6人之中就有一人身處惡劣生存環境，同時亦受疫病的危害，成為全球防治疾病的漏洞。本文首將深入探討「脆弱國家」及「脆弱性」的定義及形成脈絡，及如何用於分析疫情對脆弱國家形成的多重安全危機，及對國際安全的衝擊面向。

Since the novel coronavirus (Covid-19) first emerged in Wuhan, China, late in 2019, its multiplier of high transmissibility and fatality has brought the world to an overall standstill. As such a global pandemic is threatening to escalate into another wave of transmission, no country has been spared the impact of Covid-19. The pandemic has caused a huge shock to most affected countries in health, economy, politics, and social life, and indicated a slow recovery. However, the worse scenario may take place in fragile states for lack of good governance, public health policy and resources and national security and stability all of which have not come into existence for years. Covid-19 is not the new cause of fragile states' sufferings, just aggravating it. Before the new virus, some typical fragile states, such as Yemen, Sudan, Haiti, Sierra Leone, Myanmar, Afghanistan, other struggling countries were already beset by poverty, conflict, corruption, and poor governance. Now, these factors leave them especially ill-equipped to deal with the Covid-19 crisis. The damage to fragile states is likely to be even deeper, longer lasting, exacerbating political instability or increasing the likelihood of violence. What is clear is that the potential for the virus to wreak havoc in fragile and conflict-affected states is extremely high. It is not only a communicable disease agenda, bust also a national and global security crisis. To address the impact of Covid-19 on fragile states from a holistic and predictive perspective, an in-depth insight into the concept of ＂fragility＂ will be productive in exploring fragile states' weakness and failure in coping with the pandemic and offers an indicative framework for the analysis of the cause and consequence of state's failure or collapse due to health insecurity through the matrix of fragility of governance, security and development. This exploration will highlight the escalating crisis facing fragile states as the pandemic is eroding their shattering survival and stability, and the potential of risk and damage to international security.