臺鐵列車連鎖延滯之隨機特性模擬分析

Simulation Analysis of Stochastic Knock-on Delays for the Taiwan Railways Administration System

鑑於影響連鎖延滯之部分關鍵因素具有隨機特性，為確實反應臺鐵列車因初始延滯發生後所產生之連鎖延滯，及深入探討產生連鎖延滯之班表穩定度問題，本研究以七堵--新竹路段為案例深入分析站間運轉時間及停站時間之隨機特性，除蒐集該路段對號列車及通勤電聯車之站間運轉時間資料，並依尖、離峰時段分開彙整停站時間之隨機資料，據以應用所構建之模擬模式推估其連鎖延滯。研究結果顯示，無論任何中間車站或端末車站（七堵及新竹站），其尖峰或離峰時段之連鎖延滯模擬結果皆會收歛。本研究所提出之分析架構及方法，有助於釐清連鎖延滯關鍵影響因素及其影響程度，所構建之模擬模式可作為相關改善策略之分析工具，研究成果則可作為營運單位排班規劃、系統可靠度分析及服務品質改善參考。

In order to investigate the stochastic nature of the key factors affecting knock-on delays, the delays caused by the first delays during the train operation of the Taiwan Railways Administration (TRA), and their effects on timetable stability, this study selects the Cidu-Hsinchu section of TRA as study site and collects the data of running and dwelling time of express and commuter trains in the section for detailed analysis. A comprehensive simulation model is developed and used as the tool to deal with related problems based on the collected data separated into peak and off-peak hours. The simulation study result shows that the knock-on delays at all stations and two end stations during peak and off-peak hours converge to constant values respectively. It is concluded that the framework and the simulation model proposed in this research may be helpful not only to identify the key factors affecting knock-on delays but also their degree of impact on knock-on delays. The result is also beneficial to timetable scheduling, system reliability analysis and service quality improvement.