新一代運輸部門能源消耗與排放推估模式之構建與發展趨勢：美國MOVES模式與我國相關研究之比對探討

Development and Future Perspectives of the Next Generation Models for Energy Consumption and Emissions of the Transportation Sector: A Comparative Study of MOVES and Taiwan Research

隨能源短缺、空氣品質惡化與溫室效應加劇，研提有效政策以減少公路運輸的能源消耗與排放總量，成為公路運輸部門所必須面對的一大課題。然而能源與環境部門所使用之能耗/排放推估模式，以距離作為推估基礎（如美國MOBILE），無法有效掌握車輛使用動態下的能耗與排放特性。構建新一代運輸部門能源消耗與排放推估模式需求刻不容緩。美國MOVES（MOtor Vehicle Emission Simulator）即是目前所見較具雛形規模之新模式，美國環保署業已於2012年3月正式以MOVES替換MOBILE 6.2，作為全國、地區或區域層級、甚至計畫層級的法定評估工具。本研究即針對MOVES之實測經驗，解析MOVES模式特性與運作概要，藉此提供新一代運輸部門能源消耗與排放推估模式之構建與發展趨勢；再綜述國內相關研究發展情形，相互對照比較國內外研究成果，提供後續研究之借鏡參考。

Global concerns over energy shortage, air quality and climate change call for effective policies for reducing the consumption of fossil fuel as well as the emission of greenhouse gas (GHG) from highway transportation. The mainstream distance-based models for the evaluation of energy/environmental impacts of transportation projects, for example, MOBILE in the U.S., are deficient in capturing energy consumption/emissions of vehicles operating on the roadway. This gives rise to a need to build up the next generation model for better estimating the effects of fuel consumption and emissions of transportation projects. MOVES (MOtor Vehicle Emission Simulator) established in the U.S. represents the recent and well-received work in that move. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has indeed officially replaced MOBILE 6.2 with MOVES as the legitimate model for assessments at the national, regional, state and project levels in March 2012. This study is based on hands-on experiences of the MOVES to unveil the model attributes, structures and operation basics of MOVES. The study goes further to compare several on-going and alike studies in Taiwan, with an aim to draw implications for future direction of development in modeling for transportation air quality.