模糊滿意化分析法應用於捷運系統營運組織型態選擇之研究－－以桃園都會區捷運系統為例

An Application of Fuzzy Concordance Analysis to Organizational Types Choice of a Rapid Transit System: The Case of Tao-Yuan Rapid Transit System

捷運系統的建立與營運狀況正常與否，與其營運組織型態有極密切之關餘，而影響組織型態選擇的因素極多且其選擇屬多準則評估之群體決策問題。因此，本研究乃針對捷運系統營運組織可能型態及其相關之評估準則，應用滿意化分析法進行替選方案的評估，但由於其準則權重需進行敏成性分析，極其複雜，且於實際應用時往往不知道真正的權重為何，即使進行權重之敏是良性分析，決策者仍難以有效參考其評估結果。本研究乃以模糊權重代替敏~性分析，以棋糊語意分析整合評估者之意見，構建一模糊滿意化分析法，並以桃園捷運系統為例進行模式之應用分析，提出桃園捷運車統可能營運組織型態問之優勢關餘，供決策者在複雜與不確定性的模糊環境下決策之參考。

The establishment and operation of a rapid transit system has strong relationship with its operational organization type. Due to the choice of an operational organization type has the nature of multi-criteria evaluation and group decision, in this study, the concordance analysis method is applied to evaluate the alternatives of operational organization type. To avoid the complex process in estimating the weight of sensitivity analysis, the fuzzy weight analysis method is used to estimate all criteria 's weights. This research develops, a fuzzy concordance analysis method to choose the most suitable operational organization type. Fuzzy linguistic variable analysis is used for the purpose of combining the decision-makers' opinions. Tao-Yuan rapid transit system is an example for studying the outranking relationship between operational organization types. It is of primary importance in providing decision-makers a good reference under the complex and uncertain circumstances.