我國海運主要定期航線貨物運量分析

An Analysis of Taiwan Liner Shipping by Main Lines

臺灣地區資源缺乏，需仰賴國際貿易以維持經濟成長，且進出口貨物中經由海上運輸者佔99%以上，顯示海運與我國的經濟發展息息相關。近年來政府亦積極建設臺灣為亞太海運轉運中心，故有關海運的研究極為重要。由於貨櫃運輸未來仍是海運貨運的主流，且國輪船隊中不論艘數、載重噸或總噸，皆以貨櫃船所佔的比例最高，而海上貨櫃運輸以服務定期航線為主，因此本研究以我國定期航線貨物運量為研究範圍。有關我國進出口貨運的研究多以整體臺灣地區或各港口為範圍，缺乏對特定航線的分析。本研究分析美國、日本與香港三條主要定期航線歷年貨物運量的成長趨勢，並以時間序列資料分別建立各航線進出口貨物運量分析模式，探討影響各航線運量的因素。研究結果顯示雖然我國所有定期航線進出口貨物總量過去十年持續成長，但各主要航線的運量則互有消長，不能一概而論。此外，影響各航線貨運量的因素亦不盡相同，突顯分析特定航線的重要性。研究中除了分析個別航線貨運量的變化與影響因素外，亦比較各航線的異同，其結果有助於政府與航商掌握各航線的特性，擬定公共部門與企業的海運發展政策，而所建立的運量分析模式亦可作為未來相關研究從事運量預測的參考。

Ocean shipping plays a dominant role on Taiwan international cargotransportation that is essential to the economy growth of the island. Statisticsshow that more than 99% of import and export freight is shipped through oceantransportation. Lots of efforts have been made on the analysis of import andexport cargo volumes based on an island-wide scope or by harbors. This researchtakes a step further by investigating specific lines. The analysis focuses onthe three most import lines: Taiwan-U.S.A., Taiwan-Japan and Taiwan-Hong Kong.Time-series data from the three lines are used to examine the trend during thepast decade, and econometric models are employed to determine factors that havea bearing on containerized cargo volumes. Results indicate that while totalvolume witnesses a continuous increase in the past, variations among differentlines exist. Additionally, volumes in different lines are not influenced by thesame factors. The research results reveal the necessity of investigation bylines, and provide useful information for future research on cargo volumeforecasting.