柔性鋪面績效預測模式構建程序之研究

Methodology Development for the Flexible Pavement Performance Prediction Models

鋪面績效預測模式不僅可預測未來鋪面服務績效，更可對鋪面管理系統之設計、維修養護及評估等次系統提供強而有力的協助，是鋪面管理系統中重要的一環。本文首先闡述鋪面績效預測模式之多種構建型式；再配合實際訪問國內鋪面養護單位，提出六項本土化鋪面績效預模式之評估要預。本研究發現，鋪面家族模式為國內目前最適合採用的鋪面績效預測模式，並建立構建程序。最後則選取若干省道路蒐集其鋪面狀況資料，進行鋪面服務績效預測模式構建程序實例分析。

Pavement performance prediction models play an important role inpavement management systems. They can not only predict pavement futureconditions, but also provide valuable information to subsystems of pavementmanaement systems, such as design, maintenance, and evaluation subsystems. Thispaper first presents various methods of developing the predicition models. Afterinterviewing domestic highway agencies, sex criteria for evaluating thedevelopment methodologies are decided, Then, the model of pavement familycurves is assessed most suitable for Taiwan highway agencies. The process ofmodel development is presented. The possible parameters used to present pavementperformance and relevant facotors are also given in this paper. Through the casestudy, it is fouund that the recommended method is quite promising.