中山高速公路肇事特性時空差異比較分析

A Time and Location Comparison Analysis for Sun Yat-Sen Freeway

本文採用時間序列時間定義域分析法分析中山高速公路在不同地理區位肇事發生現象的差異，並建立預測模式。時間以月、季為間隔進行分析。區位分析項目則色括高速公路全線，北上、南下車道，北、中、南三區工程處服務範固與不同坡度路段間的差異。肇事分析項目色括肇事次數、肇事率、肇事嚴重度的比較。研究證實肇事次數及肇事率會隨月份及季節變動，兩者並都以七月份最高。至於肇事次數、總肇事嚴重渡及平均每次車禍嚴重度均以區於地形變化過渡中介的中區較北區及南區為高。

This study employs time-series analysis method to set up the ARIMA models to predict accident number, rate, severity for the Sun Yat-Sen freeway. Both monthly and quarterly intervals are used to calibrate the models. For location analysis, the freeway is divided by its travel direction and maintenance districts. 1t is found that the change of accident number and accident severity do follow a monthly and quarterly pattern. Both reach a highest level in July. As for the distribution of accidents, the central district has highest accident number, sum of accident severity, and average severity compared to northern district and southern district.