建商降價動機為何？讓利說VS.銷售說

Motivations behind Property Developers' Price Cut: “Profit-Sharing” vs. “Sales”

過去國內住宅市場之預售屋及中古屋研究，以價量研究為主，雖有部份國外研究探討中古屋特徵價格與議價能力之關係，但未進一步討論影響新推個案價量背後銷售率與議價率關係。本文主要貢獻係釐清建商在臺北市之新推個案降價動機，及探討其他與新推個案降價相關之因素。根據VECM分析，當銷售率與議價率偏離長期均衡，銷售率之移動速率較議價率快，據此，建商只有在銷售率不佳，財務風險及資金成本增加時才降價（銷售說），而非主動降價提升銷售率（讓利說）；其次，橫斷面資料實證結果，亦確定銷售率與議價率的因果關係，當銷售率提高1％，議價率下降0.022％；最後，我們也發現，影響臺北市新推個案議價率因素，財務規劃重要性高於不動產特徵。本文認為，建商面對市場景氣不佳，新推個案銷售率遲滯時，應主動加大議價空間增加銷售率，以降低財務風險。

Past studies on presale and resale housing in the domestic market have focused on price and housing volume. Few studies have investigated presale housing in foreign housing markets, and some studies have focused on the casual relationship between buyers and sellers of existing housing in relation to real estate characteristics and bargaining power. However, these studies have failed to identify the key factor affecting the price-volume relationship: the relationship between the discount rate and the sales rate. This domestic study contributes to the literature by clarifying the motivations behind property developers' price cut of new construction projects in Taipei City as well as by exploring the particular factors that affect a company's price-cutting when promoting new construction projects. First, the empirical results obtained from the vector error correction model (VECM) analysis of the macro perspective reveal the lead-lag relationship between the sales rate and the discount rate. In an unfavorable real estate market, construction companies typically do not reduce the price of their new construction properties to increase the sales rate (i.e., profit-sharing perspective). Instead, they reduce price only when the cost of capital financing increases and financial risk increases (i.e., sales perspective). Second, we confirm the causal relationship between the discount rate and the sales rate, the cross-sectional data analysis reveals that the discount rate decreases by 0.022% for each 1% rise in the sales rate. Third, we also find that compared with property (product) characteristics, financial planning (financial) characteristics more significantly influence the discount rate of new construction projects in Taipei City. Accordingly, this study proposes strategies of enhancing bargaining opportunities for the property developers to boost the sales rate as well as to avoid financial risks when facing house market downswing and low sales rate of new property projects.