中國死刑民意：測量、解構與溝通

死刑存廢是一個以公眾認同為正當性與合法性基礎的公共政策選擇問題，死刑政策決策與死刑制度設計必須認真對待民意。基於三萬餘個樣本所做的實證分析顯示，雖然多數受訪者仍然支持保留死刑，報應和威懾是民眾主張保留死刑的兩大觀念支柱，但是，中國主流民意對死刑的認同已經發生了明顯鬆動，不再絕對認同死刑，絕大多數中國民眾已經無條件地支持或有條件地接受廢除死刑。一旦提供了恰當的死刑替代措施，近八成一般性地支持保留死刑的民眾轉而同意廢除死刑。死刑民意具有複雜的生成機理，自我實現、傳媒依賴、社會不公遭遇、安全感、法治意識和社會問題評價與死刑存廢態度顯著相關。應當運用溝通商談模式對死刑民意進行理性引導，促進人的全面發展與社會的文明和諧，發揮政治精英的關鍵少數作用，科學設計死刑替代措施，普及死刑知識，借助大眾傳媒平臺，與民眾進行溝通商談，為循序漸進地推進我國死刑改革奠定堅實的社會心理基礎。

The preservation or the abolition of death penalty is an issue of public policy choice justified by public recognition. Policy decisions and system designs of death penalty should take public opinions seriously. Using data from more than 30000 samples, this research finds that the concept of retribution and deterrence constitutes the most important conceptual foundation for death penalty, upon which the majority of Chinese people are in favor of preservation of death penalty. However, the mainstream view towards death penalty has significantly changed, which suggests that the majority of Chinese people are not absolute retentionists, but either unconditional or conditional abolitionists. When appropriate alternative measures to death penalty are posed, nearly eighty percent retentionists will turn into abolitionists. Public opinions of death penalty are influenced by a variety of factors including self-actualization, dependence of mass media, social unfair experiences, sense of security, legal awareness as well as evaluation of social problems. The discourse pattern is the most suitable pattern for China to lead public opinions towards a rational direction. According to this pattern, it is advisable to promote all-round development of human beings as well as civilization and harmony of the society, value the crucial role of political elites, establish appropriate alternative measures to death penalty and communicate with the public through mass media, so as to lay solid socio-psychological foundation for the gradual reform of death penalty in China.