臺灣縣市別長照需求之中長期推計及趨勢分析

Regional Projections and Trend Analysis of Long-Term Care Needs for Taiwan's Elderly

雖然中央政府已透過總體人口推計進行長期照護規劃，但老人長照的執行主要還是仰賴縣市政府，顯示縣市別老年及失能人口推計之重要性。本文結合衛福部國民長期照護需要調查與臺灣可計算一般均衡模型，來推估縣市人口、失能人口以及在地老化意願人數。結果發現：（1）失能人口將從2015年的70.8萬人，增加至2061年之151.2萬人，成長113.61％。其中6都所占比例，將由59.50％提高至72.87％。（2）失能老人希望在地老化人數，預估由31.7萬人增至90.8萬人，大幅上揚186.23％。（3）鄉村失能人口所占比例較低，但鄉村醫療資源較為缺乏，未來處理失能照護議題時，區域化的差異值得有關單位重視。

The implementation of long-term elderly care relies on local governments, which highlights the importance of projecting the disabled elderly population at the city and county levels. This study combines the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model with the disability prevalence rates collected from the ''National Long-Term Care Needs Survey” by the Ministry of Health and Welfare to project the elderly population in need of long-term care at the city and county level in Taiwan. We find that: (1)The number of disabled people is expected to increase from 708 to 1,512 thousand, growing sharply by 113.61% between 2015 and 2061. (2)The number of disabled elderly who are eager to ''age in place” is forecast to increase from 317 to 908 thousand, soaring by 186.23%. (3)Reducing the disparities of long-term care provision between rural and urban regions, between genders, and among different income groups is a serious issue to be addressed in the future.