不願面對的威脅：從平衡到傾斜的台灣對大陸政策（1996-2004）

An Inconvenient Threat: The Mainland China Policy of Taiwan from Balance to Tilting

國家在面臨外來威脅或壓力時，會採取平衡、扈從、卸責等手段應對，台灣在面對中國的威脅時，所採取的是平衡與交往兩手策略，但這兩種策略在執行上存在著緊張與矛盾，互為影響的結果往往可能是兩頭落空，本文以新古典現實主義者蘭德爾·施韋勒（Randall L. Schweller）的平衡不足（Underbalancing）理論，對1996到2004年兩任民選總統的中國大陸政策進行檢視，研究得出李登輝政府時期是屬於附加模型，而陳水扁政府時期是屬於一廂情願下的平衡不足，兩者的政策產出大致合於模型結果。

While a state meet the external threat or pressure, it may adopt some means like balancing、bandwagoning or buck passing to response to the situations As for Taiwan, when dealing with threat of China, Taiwan's strategy is balancing and engaging. However, in real world, tension and paradox are disturbing the use of the two strategies. And they also hinder each other hence make them ineffective. This paper discusses with Randall Schweller's underbalancing theory and uses it to research on Taiwan's mainland China policy during 1996-2004. The research shows that President Li Deng-hui belongs to additional model and President Chen Shui-bian belongs to underbalancing through wishful thinking model. Both of their policy outputs approaches Schweller's models.