東亞戰略架構中核武的角色：擴散與嚇阻穩定

The Role of Nuclear Weapons in East Asia's Strategic Framework: Nuclear Proliferation and Deterrence Stability

目前東亞核武擴散危機能否順利化解，對既定的東亞權力架構、戰略均勢及台海安全，均將造成重大衝擊。本文首先分析目前東亞既定戰略架構中，美國的核保護傘所構成的延伸嚇阻的角色，此角色實為維繫目前東亞嚇阻穩定之關鍵。之後則探討此一角色受到中共核武的垂直擴散與北韓核武的平行擴散之挑戰。而後則分析飛彈防禦是否足以因應此些挑戰，以維繫美國延伸嚇阻的可信度，並緩和東亞的核武擴散。面對此一目前仍快速變化中的東北亞安全局勢，台灣應妥善因應，以避免台灣的安全利益被邊緣化，尤其是面對可能出現的東北亞多邊安全機制。並審慎關注東北亞戰略架構的轉變，尤其是東北亞各國核武實力的發展，和美國延伸嚇阻之安全承諾的可信度、飛彈防禦，及不擴散機制之間的關連，未來將如何發展及影響各國對外關係、東亞戰略格局及兩岸安全關係，實為日後值得關注之發展。

Over the past year, the security issue of East Asia has been under the influence of various factors and has undergone great changes, especially the problem of nuclear proliferation. The instigation and expansion of an arms race in the Asian Region will have a massive impact on the strategic environment of Taiwan. This is especially true due to the recent aggravation of the North Korean Nuclear Crisis and the development of China's new generation nuclear weapons. Will Japan tolerate another neighboring country to be in possession of nuclear weapons while it remains to be the only country in North-east Asia without nuclear weapons? And how will this affect Tokyo's faith in the protection of US nuclear umbrell? This is the chief concern over the development of North Korean nuclear crisis, because the emergence of a nuclear Japan will inevitably have a vast impact on the existing East Asian strategic framework and balance of power.