台海安全體系建立之可行性

The Possibility for Building a Security Mechanism in Taiwan Strait

使兩岸避免軍事衝突的「機制」，並探討透由「機制」的溝通，兩岸當局彼此得以相互抵制，並因而產生互信的基礎，為兩岸關係的發展注入一到正面的意義。比較具體而且也其積極作為可發展成「台海安全體系」的有下列三方面的看法：（一）希望簽訂兩岸結束敵對狀態的協議；（二）呼籲建立兩岸和平穩定的架構；（三）建議建立兩岸軍事互信的機制。本文希望就上述兩岸相互的一些建議倡導，選擇出與台海安全體系建構有關的看法，整理成可以架設兩岸安全體系的藍圖，並從其中可運作的內涵加以分析。當然也對於這些已發布的建議裡，可能會構成「達成目標的障礙」予以分析。不過最重要的，除了上述一些建議倡導的共識與歧見，作者還設法就兩岸最具爭議的部分，譬如談判前的前提條件，或是談判時的彼此政治定位，以及談判後的協議簽訂方式作更深一層的解析。台海建立安全體系，當然會有各種不同的可能性。其中可能會影響台海安全體系建立的因素分析如下：學界樂觀的前景可否帶來台海安全的遠景？兩岸現狀設若受到中共承諾能予維持，一種的「台海安全體系」？兩岸終止敵對狀態協議簽署的展望，必須透過兩岸正式官方接觸與談判

This research is mainly concentrating in the establishment of peaceful environment in the Cross-strait Relations, and seeking to build a mechanism for avoiding a possible military conflict across Taiwan Strait. In other words, it tries to have the both sides of Strait learned the self-restraint through the mechanism mentioned above, thus it provides the base for having mutual-trust between Taipei and Beijing. There are three concrete suggestions then offered by the authorities and the scholars in both sides of Taiwan Strait as the following: 1. Agreement for End of Cross-strait Antagonistic Status; 2. Framework for building Cross- strait Peace; 3. Mechanism for Confidence-building Measures. Besides, the author also touches some arguments such as the pre-conditions and the political definition set by both sides of Taiwan Strait in the possible negotiations for building a Security Mechanism there. The way for how to sign an agreement at final will be also discussed. In conclusion, the author raises three prospects in the future: Can the optimistic viewpoints that are hold by some scholars in the both of Taiwan Strait will be realized finally? Can the promise made by Beijing to maintain the peace in the Taiwan Strait be considered as the other kind of format for building the Security Mechanism? And it must be through the process of political negotiation to sign the Peaceful Agreement between Taipei and Beijing.