東北亞安全問題與區域治理機

Security Issues and the Development of Regional Governance Regime in Northeast Asia

相較於1970-80年代間，由於中美兩國展開政治互動，以及區域內部份國家邁向經濟高速發展時期，東北亞或甚至是整個東亞地區也因此在安全環境上維持著一定的穩定情勢；不過，到了1990年代，在後冷戰時期多極格局所凸顯結構複雜性的暗示下，東北亞地區若干既有的熱點問題（特別是兩岸問題與朝鮮半島衝突）也出現明顯升溫的現象。可以這麼說，東北亞地區既是當前具全球影響力大國最密集的區域，「大國關係」亦是牽動東北亞地區穩定與否最關鍵的外在因素，至於其結構型態則基本上凸顯於美中日三角互動關係的發展，以及俄羅斯所扮演的隱形大國角色。儘管如此，就算大國態度確實在機制形成過程中扮演重要角色，但更實際的推動力或許還是來自於環境中存在著現實問題，於是帶來解決問題壓力的結果。在本文中，我們便試圖從現實問題面著手，去瞭解東北亞區域治理機制發展的問題。

In 1970-80s, because of U.S. and China began their political détente, and some countries (ex. the Four Tigers) have faced the rapid economic development, then the Northeast Asia has also existed a relatively peaceful environment. However, in the Post Cold War Era, the multilateral system has seems to trigger some nerves situation in the hot spots of this region, especially the cross-strait relations and the crisis of Korea peninsula. In fact, Northeast Asia has not only owned most of the major powers in the world, including China, Japan, United States, and Russia, the relations among major powers is also the key factor influencing the regional security. In this paper, we will try to realize the future of U.S.-China-Japan Triangle and the possible role of Russia, and then to observe the development of regional regimes and how they would influence the security of Northeast Asia.