強權崛起：中國近二十五年綜合國力評估

Rise of A Great Power: Evaluating China's Comprehensive National Power during the last 25 Years

本文討論了迄今所出現關於綜合國力的衡量方式，並提出考慮領土、經濟、能源消耗、鋼鐵生產、發展程度的綜合指標，再據以計算過去25年以來中國崛起的程度。從中可以發現，比較起十九世紀末的德國與二十世紀初的日本，中國今日的崛起雖還不比上德國，但已遠遠超過日本。中國在這樣的崛起之際，軍力為何沒有相稱的增長？核子嚇阻與中國所在的地理環境可充分解釋。

This article explores the existing measurements of comprehensive national power and proposed a revised version that incorporates territories, economies, energy consumptions, steel productions, and level of developments to evaluate China's rise during the last 25 years. In this regard, from a comparative perspective of Germany and Japan in the late 19th and early 20th Century, China is yet as powerful as Germany but was already far more powerful than Japan. Why China's military power does not increase accordingly? This puzzle can be fully explained by nuclear deterrence and China's geographical context.