第二次安倍政權推動修憲之策略分析

The Abe Administration's Constitutional Amendment Strategy

2016 年 7 月 10 日的日本參議院改選結果，使得現今執政黨自民黨等修憲派勢力在參眾二院皆占有三分之二以上席次，達到了修憲提案的門檻。如此，長年以來主張修改憲法以制定日本自主憲法為目標的安倍首相，接下來將會如何地推動修憲工程便更加地受到矚目。從自民黨的成立背景來看，追求自主憲法自始便是以憲法第二章放棄戰爭、限制自衛權的憲法第 9 條為修憲之主要目的。但是，無論是在國會上或是民意上始終無法看到實現的可能性，也因此有了所謂的政府憲法解釋的現像。然而，近來內外諸多情事的改變，自民黨的修憲策略漸「從質轉量」，企圖以增加人權清單的「加憲」方式來實現修憲「事實」，同時也在 2012 年在野時提出了修憲的版本，但始終受到憲法第 96 條，發動修憲提案權需有兩院各三分之二以上的國會議員同意之限制。或鑑於此，安倍第二次政權試圖調整此一硬性憲法之規定，欲將修憲程序「從硬轉軟」，主張以修改 96 條方式來降低提案門檻，後雖未果，但一系列的安全保障立法，事實上也強化了日本集體的防衛能力。如今，修憲國會勢力已達提案門檻，對阿倍首相而言修憲的可能性更加濃厚，此時的安全駕駛成為安倍修憲之路的重要守則，於是為通過國民投票的最後修憲關卡，主張所謂的二階段修憲戰略——先修人權條款再修第 9 條——擬以「量變再質變」方式達成最初也是最終之修憲目標。然而，雖說現在已是安倍獨強的時代，在往後的修憲路途之中除了須面對黨內外的反對勢力外，一系列的安保法案是否會受到司法的違憲判斷勢必影響安倍修憲願景中那最重要的最後一塊拚圖。

The 24th regular election of members of the House of Councillors was held on 10 July 2016. As result of this election, the ruling party, such as the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito, the group of advocate constitutional amendment has occupied more than two-thirds of the seats in the House of Representatives and Councillors has reached the threshold of constitutional proposals. So, for many years advocated constitution revision to develop the Japanese Constitution of Abe Prime Minister, will be how to promote the amendment attracted worldwide attention. Since the beginning is to amend the Constitution of Chapter II Renunciation of war, to restrict the right of self-defense of the Constitution Article 9 as the center. But whether it is in Congress or public opinion can not see the possibility of realization, which produced the phenomenon of government constitutional interpretation to exercise the right of collective self-defense. Now, many changed both inside and outside, the LDP 's Policy of Constitutional Amendment favor quantity over quality, attempt to increase the list of human rights to achieve the purpose of revision. 2012, the LDP as the opposition party proposed revision of the revised version. But has always been subject to Article 96 of the Constitution, amendments to this constitution shall be initiated by the diet, through a concurring vote of two-thirds or more of all the members of each house and shall thereupon be submitted to the people for ratification. In view of this, Abe's second term wants to revise the constitutional process from a rigid constitution turn soft, and advocated the revision of Article 96 of the Constitution to reduce the threshold. Although there is no success, but a series of security legislation, in fact, strengthen the Japanese collective defense capabilities. Now, the group of advocate constitutional amendment in National Diet of Japan has reached the threshold of proposals, for Abe Prime Minister, the possibility of amending the constitution becomes higher. At this point, the maintenance of security practices became an important code of Constitution Revision Road. In order to pass the national referendum to advocate a two-stage strategy of constitution revision. First amend the human rights clause, and then amend the Constitution Article 9. This is for trying to ease the resistance of advocates of protection of the Constitution when people have the experience of constitutional amendment. Finally, to achieve the initial and final constitution revision goal of amending Article 9. However, a series of Legislation for Peace and Security is pending in court. This means that the results of the Judicial Review will affect the most important last piece of puzzle on the road of Abe's constitutional revision.