安倍政權下的日本戰略轉型與中日關係發展

Japan's Strategic Adjustment and the Development of Sino-Japan Relations under Abe's Regime

安倍政權下的日本正在積極地進行國家戰略轉型，這是明治維新以來「日本國家戰略 4.0 版」。從歷史長波週期看，21 世紀第二個 10 年的日本正處於國力「強—弱」週期性位移的變動期，國家發展「上升—下降」的階段性轉換期。在這樣的轉折期，日本的戰略轉型將對未來產生決定性的影響。從安倍政權的政策看，「戰前思維」和「戰後道路」是日本戰略轉型的基本理念；變位性權力行為和積極型變位戰略，是日本採取的基本戰略。安倍經濟學、安倍安全保障學、安倍外交學，是日本國家戰略轉型的三大政策支柱。安倍的積極型變位戰略，帶有明顯的進攻現實主義和機會主義的色彩。日本的戰略轉型必將對中國和平崛起帶來衝擊，對中日戰略結構的穩定和地區未來戰略形勢產生深遠影響。

Japan is actively carrying out the national strategic transformation under the Abe Regime, which is the ''Japan's national strategy 4.0 version'' since the Meiji Restoration. As the historical long-wave cycle, Japan is in the ''strong-weak'' periodic displacement change of the national power in the second decade of the 21st century. In this transition period, the strategic transformation of Japan has the decisive influence for the future. In the view of the policy for the Abe Regime, ''the thinking before the war'' and ''the road after the war'' are the basic conception of the strategic transformation of Japan; the displacement of the power behavior and the positive type displacement strategy, are the basic strategy which Japan assumed. The Abenomics, the Abe security doctrine, and the Abe diplomacy doctrine, are the three policy pillars of the strategic transformation of Japan. The positive type displacement strategy of Abe, involves the color of the obvious offensive realism and opportunism. The strategic transformation of Japan must has the impact for China's peaceful rise, has the profound impact for the stability of the China-Japanese strategic structure and the strategic situation of future in the region.