大小之爭：北極圈大小國家的戰略互動

Polar Controversy: Strategy and Statecraft among the Arctic states

全球氣候變遷對北極地區所帶來的影響，相較於世界其他區域，有過之無不及。隨著氣候變遷導致北極圈永凍層的融化現象，不僅影響周遭鄰國傳統戰略部署與資源爭奪問題，亦引發全球環境與海洋等非傳統安全議題。北極圈涉及領土糾紛、商船航線、石油、天然氣和礦物勘探等，尤其此地區的軍事行動極可能導致此區成為未來各國合作與競爭的國際舞台。 北極問題實質上是海洋問題，但在能源資源爭奪、領土劃界與航道部署，充斥大國地緣戰略與小國外交思維。準此，本文以北歐小國在極地爭奪中所產生的海洋問題為探討背景，討論北極圈融化後所造成海洋問題下的國家利益與區域權力平衡，文章主要呈現構想為二：(1)探究北歐小國(極圈內)－挪威、冰島、丹麥在氣候變遷影響北極後，所主張的北極外交戰略；(2)檢視北歐極圈小國在極地之爭中與大國壇坫週旋的外交思維。

Global climate change has affected the Arctic region with greater intensity than the rest of the world. With the phenomenon of climate change leads to melting of the Arctic permafrost, not only affect the surrounding neighbors, the traditional strategic and resource contention issues, but also lead to non-traditional security issues of global environmental and marine resources. Issues such as Arctic territorial disputes, commercial shipping through the Arctic, oil, gas, mineral exploration, and increased military operations in the Arctic could cause the region in coming years to become an arena of international cooperation or competition. There are multiple concerns in the issues of Arctic, including scramble for resources, territorial delimitation, channel deployment, geostrategic thinking of great powers, and the role of small state diplomacy. Hence, the following discussion provides an analysis of polar controversy considerations for the balance of power and national interests. This effort involves two tasks: 1) after reviewing the climate changes affecting the Arctic in Part I, this discussion addresses the diplomatic strategies among Norway, Iceland, and Denmark. 2) Part II discusses geostrategic thinking of great powers and diplomatic Statecraft of the Small Nordic Countries in the Arctic Circle.