再生能源發展政策之效益評估──結合實質選擇權法與成本效率曲線

The Benefit Evaluation for Renewable Energy Development Policy Using Real Option Analysis and Cost Efficiency Curve

本文主要目的在於運用實質選擇權法與成本效率曲線，建構再生能源發展之政策效益評價模式，模式中探討影響政策效益評價的不確定性與主要因素，正確評估再生能源發展之效益價值。並以風能進行實證分析搭配政策模擬（收購價格變動與外部成本內部化），進而協助政府規劃最適的再生能源發展政策與改善方向。研究結果顯示，當考量實質選擇權價值時，發展再生能源是具有投資效益的政策規劃。當外部成本內部化時，更能突顯發展再生能源所帶來的政策效益價值。在目前風能技術發展下，過度提高收購電價金額是不具投資效益的政策規劃。

This study presents a policy benefit evaluation model that integrates cost efficiency curve information on renewable power generation technologies into real options analysis (ROA) methods. The proposed model evaluates quantitatively the policy value provided by developing renewable energy (RE) in the face of uncertain fossil fuel prices and RE policy-related factors. The empirical analysis is based on data for Taiwan wind power and used to simulate two policy scenarios: varying feed-in tariff (FIT) and internalized external costs (CO2 emission cost). Besides assessing the policy value of current RE development policy, this model also compares policy value and policy planning in the two scenarios, which will help the government to formulate and improve its renewable energy development policies. The analysis shows that RE development provides investment benefits when considering real options value. The scenario simulation results demonstrate that when CO2 emission costs are internalized, real options value generated by RE is increased. In the current environment for developing wind power technology, policies that support higher FIT level are not beneficial.