2006年尼加拉瓜總統選舉之分析：政黨競爭與選舉結果

The Preliminary Analysis of 2006 Nicaraguan Presidential Election: Party Competition and the Election Result

尼加拉瓜前軍事將領Daniel Ortega，以38%得票率於2006年總統選舉獲勝當選。選後，許多分析家將Ortega勝選歸結為2000年選舉法及右派候選人分裂，而本文旨在利用尼國最高選舉委員會公布有選舉結果，重新檢視促成Ortega當選的這兩項原因之影響力，在交叉分析尼國選舉結果後，筆者發現勢均力敵的右派政黨候選人競爭形勢，使Ortega得以首輪當選。

icaragua's former military leader, Daniel Ortega, has won the 2006 presidential election with 38 percent of the vote in the first round. Some Analysts have argued after the election that there were two main factors the 2000 election law and the division among the two rightwing candidates-that led to Daniel Ortega's victory. In this paper, the author aims to reexamine the influences of those two factors by using the election result released by the Nicaragua Supreme Electoral Council (CSE). In conclusion, the author finds that the division between the two rightwing candidates, each with almost equal support, is the key variable that has made Ortega the winner of the 2006 presidential election in the first round.