人民幣匯率之國際政治經濟分析

The International Political Economic Analysis of the Renminbi Exchange Rate

隨著中國在國際經濟與戰略地位的竄升，人民幣匯率變動摻雜很多國際經濟與政治的考量。從國際政治經濟學的角度，本文分析人民幣均衡匯率之估算、人民幣匯率調整之爭議、中國內部經濟風險之擴大、國際強權施壓中國升值人民幣及人民幣匯率未來走勢與國際影響。本文總結，中國政府為了維持內部貨幣政策的自主性、避免經濟失衡與泡沫化持續惡化與緩和國際政治壓力，今（2005）年7月21日人民幣匯率體制變動與微幅升值應該是人民幣匯率長期逐漸升值的第一步。

With the rise of China's international economic and strategic status, the revaluation of the Chinese Renminbi exchange rate involves many factors of international economy and politics. From the perspective of international political economy, this paper analyzes the estimates of the Renminbi equilibrium exchange rate, the debates on the revaluation of the Renminbi exchange rate, the exacerbation of China's internal economic risk, international political pressure on China for the Renminbi revaluation, as well as the prospect of the Renminbi exchange rate and the impact on regional economies. This paper concludes that because the Chinese government would like to maintain internal monetary autonomy, avoid further deterioration of economic imbalance and bubble, and respond to international political pressure, the change of the Renminbi exchange rate regime and mild revaluation on July 21, 2005 might be the first step of a gradual long-term appreciation of the Renminbi exchange rate.