反彈道導彈條約爭議與中俄關係的發展

ABM Treaty Contentions and Sino-Russian Relation

中俄兩國在維護美國為發展NMD而意圖修改的反彈道導彈修約（ABM）上具有重要戰略利益，使得俄美之間ABM條約爭議成為一九九七年後中俄戰略夥伴關係持續發展的動力。不過由於中俄兩國在經濟上同美國相互依賴的程度遠大於中俄彼此的依賴，而且中俄兩國冷戰後力不足，雙方聯合並不足以對美國的國際行為產生關鍵影響，反彈道導彈條約爭議在中俄關係發展中的促進作用因此有其侷限性。此侷限又對中俄在反彈道防禦導彈上的合作產生三個影響：第一，俄羅斯在反彈道導彈問題的國際鬥爭上，並不單一的以聯合中共作為唯一策略；第二，反彈道導彈條約爭議在中俄關係中呈現強烈工具性色彩，中俄雙方都企圖利用維護反彈道導彈條約的合作來獲取其他利益；第三，九一一事件後反彈道導彈條約對促進中俄關係的功能進一步弱化。基於此種侷限，中俄雙方對於美國在二○○一年年底正式宣佈退出反彈道導彈條約，以及條約在二○○二年六月自動失效的既成事實態度低調，同時，中俄戰略協作夥伴關係不但未進一步朝抗衡美國方向發展，反而是美俄關係大幅改善。不過，反彈道導彈條約失效及美俄關係的改善同的也不致於導致中俄關係的停滯或倒退，主要是因為過去十年來中俄關係在各領域的互動已日趨制度化，同時俄羅斯在融入西方的過程中仍存相當大的不確定性，最重要是中俄在二十一世紀仍具有在地緣政治、經貿、軍事、反恐及地區穩定上必須相互合作的利益。

China and Russia share crucial interests in maintaining the ABM treaty. The U.S. has, however, attempted to reverse this treaty in order to develop NMD. This has influenced the Sino-Russian strategic partnership initiated in 1997. However, this promotion has its limits because China and Russia need the U.S. economically more than they need each other. Furthermore, because of their relative weakness vis avis the U.S., it is difficult for China and Russia to pose any significant challenge to the U.S. sino-Russian cooperation on the Abm treaty has thus been limited. First, Russia does not regard uniting with China as the only strategy for preserving the ABM treaty. Second, China and Russia are attempting to use the ABM treaty cooperation as an instrument to achieve other respective interests. Third, the function of the ABM treaty to promote Sino-Russia partnership has been further weakened since September 11. Based on these limitations, China and Russia facing the U.S. withdraw from the ABM treaty announced at the end of 2001 made no serious attempt to oppose the U.S as some western observers had predicted. Furthermore, U.S.-Russian relations have improved a great deal underthe anti-terrorism campaign. This development and automatic nullification of the ABM treaty will likely result in harmful influences on the Sino-Russia partnership in the future. These influences, however, would be limited because of the following reasons: First, Sino-Russia interactions in most spheres have become institutionalized over the past ten years. Second, there is still uncertainty in the process of Russian integration with the west. Third, China and Russia still share common interests in geopolitics, economic and trade interaction, military sales, anti-terrorism, and regional security.