外高加索地區新情勢：兼論俄羅斯對該地區政策之轉變

An Analysis of Russia's Policy Shifts Towards Transcaucasia

近來外高加索地區情勢的發展有三方面已明顯較往年有所不同，但不可否認的是，它們都與俄羅斯息息相關：首先是，俄羅斯認為對外高加索地區的政策應從它自己整體性國家安全的層面來考慮，而俄國與外高加索地區又應放在它與「獨立國協」成員國之間多邊合作關係的優先位置上。其是，新的俄羅斯國家領導人有意改善過去俄國與阿塞拜疆之間低迷的氣氛，並在今年一開始就應邀前往阿國展開睦鄰關係和建立戰略伙伴關係之旅。第三是，對於談判多年而仍未解決的「納－卡問題」，在「歐安組織明斯克小組」共同主席們的奔走協助下，亞美尼亞與阿塞拜疆兩國元首又歷經了十幾次的對話之後，雖未見到令人滿意的結果，但其前景則似乎不如當初那麼悲觀黯淡了。美國方面也願意與俄羅斯合作，並希望莫斯科方面發揮其影響力，以儘早促成外高加索的穩定，因此，外高加索地區想要獲得一個長久安定與發展的局面雖非容易，但若有意也終究必能達成。

Three major recent developments in Transcaucasia have shown a distinctive departure from the earlier situation. Inevitably, each of these shifts are also closely related to Russia. First of all, Russia has placed multilateral and bilateral cooperation with the CIS members as national security priorities, especially the Transcaucasian region. Secondly, Russia's new leader intends to improve stagnant relations between Russia and Azerbaijan. Therefore, he made a trip to Azerbaijan at the beginning of this year in order to develop a good-neighbor policy and to build up a strategic partnership. Thirdly, after many years of negotiations the co-chairmen of the Minsk Group of OSCE have taken up the unsettled Nagorno-Karabakh dispute. More than a dozen dialogues between the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan led to a less pessimistic future outlook for this area, though the result has been far from satisfactory. In addition, the United States is willing to work with Russia, hoping the latter will exert its influence and help settle this dispute and bring stability to the region. Consequently, even though establishing sustainable stability to the region. Consequently, even though establishing sustainable stability and development in the Transcaucasian region is difficult, there appears to be opportunity for success if the parties involved are determined to work out a solution.