政治繼承與共黨政權結構穩定性的比較研究

Political Succession and the Structural Stability of Communist Regimes: A Comparative Study

本文從制度設計的層面解釋多數共黨政權在政治繼承過程中容易出現暴力衝突的原因。政治繼承機制是政權結構穩定的一個重要關鍵，如果缺乏這個機制，就代表一個政權缺乏和平權力轉移的規範，容易出現暴力鬥爭。從這個角度來看，多數共黨政權在制度設計上有先天的缺陷，是屬於結構不穩定的政權型態。本文的結論提供我們兩個觀察中國大陸和越南政局發展的方向：第一、經改後是否出現獨立於國家控制的民間菁英，以及共黨統治菁英如何將民間菁英整合到現有體制中；第二、共黨是否能建立「梯隊接班」模式做為未來政治繼承的機制。

This article explains the reasons behind the appearance of violent conflict during political succession in most communist countries. The author argues that the mechanism of political succession is crucial to the structural stability of a regime. The absence of this mechanism represents the lack of consensual regulations among political elites to promote peaceful power transfer and thereby usually leads to violent power struggles. According to this argument, most communist regimes are structurally unstable. The findings of this article suggest two important directions for future research regarding political developments in China and Vietnam: whether independent non-governing elites appear in society after years of economic reforms and how communist ruling elites integrate non-governing elites into the communist political system, and whether the Communist Party can establish a model of succession by echelon necessary for smooth future leadership succession.