「戒急用忍」或「大膽西進」﹖我國對於大陸投資的影響因素評估

'Cautious Self-Restraint' Versus 'Courageously Going West?' An Analysis of Taiwan's Investment in Mainland China

邇來，面臨益形蓬勃的兩岸經貿交流，政府究竟應否管制我國企業赴大陸投資，已成為國內重要的爭論議題。本文旨在探討一九九四年至一九九八年期間，相關政治經濟因素對於我國大陸投資的影響程度。綜合相關檢定及迴歸模型之分析結果，本文推論，兩岸當局的互動以及雙方對於重要事務所採取的政策措施，可能影響我國企業至大陸投資。再者，國民所得差額對於大陸投資的影響程度，亦會隨著兩岸政治局勢的改變而有所不同。在結語中，本文認為無論管制或者放任民間企業赴大陸投資的論點，皆有其不足之處，唯有調整國內產業結構，建立完善投資環境，才是達到「根留台灣」目標的當務之急。

Facing a flourishing economic relationship between Taiwan and the Chinese mainland, the Taiwan government faces the dilemma of whether or not to regulate the investments of the Taiwanese business community in China. This study empirically examines the impacts of political and economic determinants of Taiwanese investments in the mainland during the period of 1994~1998. By analyzing relevant data via regression models, we argue that official interactions and policies between Taiwan and China have a significant effect on Taiwan's investments in China. The results also reveal that the impact of Taiwan's gross national product conditionally correlates to the overall state of cross-strait interactions. In this essay, we argue that both regulatory and laissez-faire policies have their repective weaknesses. Adjusting domestic industrial structure and improving Taiwan's investment environment are the best strategies to maintain Taiwan's economic prosperity and national security.