亞洲金融風暴的省思及對我國的影響

The Implications of Asia's Financial Crisis

一九九七年七月，由泰國開始的金融風暴出乎世人意料地迅速襲擊了整個東亞。各國發生的原因及受影響的程度並不一致，但經濟結構性問題抗拒改革是主因。對亞洲國家而言，一九九八年將是一九七四年石油危機以來經濟情勢最惡劣的一年，預料亞洲各國將面臨外貿衰退，資本成長幅度減緩，通貨膨脹率上揚，失業人口增加和企業倒閉等問題。我國各界原先對金融風暴的影響評估太過樂觀，其實景氣谷底尚不可測。如果日圓再持續貶值，大陸、香港的經濟若亦下滑的話，台灣勢必受到相當大的影響。亞洲金融風暴效應至今才顯現，後續影響仍值得觀察。

The financial crisis that began in Thailand in July of 1997 has quickly spread throughout East Asia. Although both the cause and the degree of the crisis has varied by country, the main causes were economic structural problems and resistance to change. For all Asian countries, 1998 will be the worst economic year since the oil crisis in 1974. It is expected that Asian countries will face an international trade recession, capital growth rate decreases, inflation, an increase in the unemployment rate, and the bankruptcy of many cooperations. While most experts in Taiwan hold an optimistic view of avoiding the brunt of the financial crisis, the real impact is not yet known. If the yen continues to devalue, and the economy of mainland China and Hong Kong fall, Taiwan will also be pulled into the crisis. The effects of Asia's financial crisis have only recently begun to surface and more investigation is need to fully understand the extent and depth of it consequences.