越南新領導人面臨的政經困境與改革前景

The Vietnamese New Leaders' Political Dilemma and Future Outlook

從去年九月開始，越南政壇就進行一次領導階層的大換血，三位六十餘歲的少壯派領袖代年平均近八十歲的老一代領導者。另一方面，越南近年來在政治和經濟上均面臨嚴厲的衝擊和挑戰。本文從越南的人事互動、政策轉變、以及未來走向等層面探討越南近期的發展。本文的結論是在經濟上越南勢必和東協各國做進一步整合；政治上則以維持現狀為最可行之路，政治民主化之路在越南可能還有一大段路要走。

A new generation of the Vietnamese leadership has emerged since the end of 1997 to replace the old 'orthodox, revolutionary' leadership which had occupied Vietnamese politics for more than thirty years. At the same time, both Vietnam's politics and economy have faced severe challenges in recent years. This article examines these challenges and analyzes both the political and economic implications. This article examines these challenges and analyzes both the political and economic implications. This article concludes that in the future, the Vietnam economy will be further integrated. with ASEAN countries, but Vietnam's political democratization still has a long way to go.