俄羅斯經濟概況與發展前景

The Russian Economy and Its Perspective

俄羅斯於一九九二年開始激進經濟改革，其成效深受質疑。一九九六年其國內總生產值比一九八九年減少四一.八%，工業總產值減少五六.四%。一九九七年經濟止跌回升，估計祇有一%成長。人民生活水準大幅下降，物價飛騰，貧富對比懸殊。此緣於私有化和財富重分配過程出現重大瑕疵；俄國政府對經濟活動缺乏監督，任憑國有企業自生自滅。企業私有化實質使國有財產被官僚和經理階層所操控。經改衍生的困難與問題包括政府債台高築、國內資金大量外流、經濟犯罪增加、失業率攀升等；俄羅斯以原料、能源出口賺取外匯。經改政策在數年間雖屢作修正。但未偏離原有架構。俄官方擬訂的經濟發展策略似仍與實際狀況有差距，政府的角色亦未加強。預料俄羅斯經濟未來十年難以迅速成長，雖然其具有深厚的經潛力與資源，而且可能逐漸從谷底回升。

Russia began its radical economic reform in 1992, but its effects have been widely greeted with skepticism by its people. Its GDP, compared to 1989, has decreased 41.8%, and its industry 56.4%. In 1997, its economy finally had positive growth, with a 1% preliminary estimate. Reform has resulted in a large slide in living standards, a big jump in inflation, and critical deviation in the distribution of the wealth between rich and poor. The basic reason is that the Russian government has not been able to take positive control of economic activity, as the process of privatization and the redistribution of national wealth has created mistakes. National enterprises have fallen under the hands of bureaucratic and managerial apparatus from the beginning of privatization.Economic reform has also involved some problems, including a huge debt, capital outflow, increasing crime, growing unemployment, and heavy export dependence on raw materials and energy. Although the policy of economic reform has been revised several times, it still has not deviated from its basic design. Official economic developmental strategy thus seems to have a gap with the factual situation, with the role of the government not yet strengthened. In the next ten years, it will therefore be difficult for the Russian economy to quickly develop, though it possesses tremendous potential and resources.