兩岸關係與臺灣民眾政治支持的解析   全文下載

Cross-Strait Relations and Political Support in Taiwan

由於兩岸特殊的歷史發展，在考慮臺灣民眾的政治支持時，必須將兩岸關係納入考量。本研究運用Easton 有關政治支持的概念，探討影響臺灣民眾政治支持的因素。本研究認為，儘管馬英九總統上任後，兩岸關係和緩，但臺灣民眾對於中國大陸的武力威脅與經貿利益認知是否影響臺灣民眾的政治支持，是本研究討論的焦點。本研究運用國立政治大學選舉研究中心在2010 年3 月進行的調查研究資料，以兩岸關係變數作為主要解釋變數，同時納入一般研究政治支持所關切的政治社會化變數及政府施政表現變數進入分析。為了比較不同層次政治支持的差異，本研究以民主支持與民眾對馬英九總統的施政滿意度作為對照，檢視上述變數對於總統滿意度及民主支持的影響。研究結果發現：與過去的理論相符者乃施政表現影響總統的滿意度；此外，民眾預期在兩岸經貿交流中獲利者，也較傾向支持馬英九總統。不過，在民眾對民主的支持上，中國大陸的武力威脅及與中國大陸更緊密的經貿關係都會影響民眾對民主的支持。因此，如何在與中國大陸密切交流之際，確保臺灣民主政治健全發展，將是未來執政者的施政重點。

This study proposes that when we examine political support among mass public in Taiwan, we have to take cross-Strait relations into consideration because the unique relationship between Taiwan and Mainland China. Employing Easton’s political support schema, we intend to explore factors affecting political support in Taiwan. President Ma Ying-Jeou took office in May of 2008 and cross-Strait tension declines significantly. This study explores how people’s perceptions on military threats and economic interests from Mainland China might affect their levels of political support. Employing survey data collected in March 2010 by Election Study Center, National Chengchi University, we examine how cross-Strait relations and other factors might affect people’s democratic support and presidential approval. Not surprisingly, people’s perceptions on governmental performance affect their level of presidential approval. People expect to gain benefit from cross-Strait exchange are also more likely to support President Ma Ying-Jeou. However, both perceptions of military threat and close economic exchanges have significant effects on people’s democratic support in Taiwan. Therefore, the authorities in Taiwan have to consider how to maintain peaceful relationship with Mainland China while assuring healthy democracy in Taiwan.