美中貿易戰與亞洲經濟發展：兼論對台灣及台商的影響（The U.S-China Trade War and Asian Economic Development: The Impacts on Taiwan and on Overseas Taiwanese Businessmen）

米中貿易戦争とアジアの経済発展：台湾と台湾企業への影響の検討を兼ねて

美中貿易戰發展迄今，早已超越最初的貿易逆差問題，成為涵蓋政治、經濟、軍事、科技等面向且長期化的複合戰。美中兩國的最終目標是爭奪未來的全球霸權地位，包括科技、製造、生活、金融、制度、價值等以及地緣政治的勢力範圍，主要焦點是高科技主導權之爭。隨著兩國對立升高，美中貿易戰加速了全球供應鏈的移動與重組，未來可能形成「去中國化」和「中國化」兩種陣營。這除了影響亞洲經濟整合之外，也迫使亞洲各國政府與企業必須重新調整其區域戰略和全球布局。在此過程中，台灣與台商應該扮演什麼樣的角色？ 如何趨吉避凶謀求自身最大的利益和發展？本文嘗試加以探討。

The U.S-China trade war so far has developed beyond the trade deficit problem and has become a long-term complex war, including political, economic, military, and technological competitions. The ultimate aim of these two great powers is to compete for future global hegemony, covering the domains of technology, manufacturing, lifestyle, finance, institution, value, etc., as well as geopolitical Lebensraum. However, the primary focus is the battle for high-tech dominance. As the antagonism between the two countries rises, the U.S-China trade war has accelerated the movement and reorganization of the global supply chain. In the future, the whole world might be divided into two parts of “Chinese camp” and “Non-Chinese camp.” In addition to affecting Asian economic integration, this trend also forces Asian governments and companies to re-adjust their regional strategies and global layouts. As a result, this paper will explore two questions - During this process, what roles should Taiwan and overseas Taiwanese businessmen play? And how to seek the advantages and avoid disadvantages for the best development of Taiwan?