新冠肺炎(COVID-19)對台灣的經濟衝擊與經濟政策的評估──動態產業關聯模型分析（The Impact of COVID-19 on Taiwan Economies and Evaluation of Economic Policies: An Application Dynamic Input-Output Models Approach）

新型コロナ（COVID-19）が台湾経済に与える影響と経済政策の評価──動学的産業連関モデルによるアプローチ

2019 年底爆發了COVID-19 演變「全球大流行」（pandemic） 之後，除了造成各國的重大傷亡之外，也重創世界經濟。這是前所未有大災難，新型病毒感染產生的危機涵蓋相當廣泛範圍，生活方式受到嚴重的限制，扭曲了民間消費與企業生產，經濟面臨極大的衝擊。為了因應COVID-19 危機，包含台灣在內的世界各國都編列鉅額的預算支出試圖減輕經濟的損害。台灣在國內疫情獲得有效控制，深獲國際肯定的同時，也編列新台幣1.05 兆元( 約3 兆7,500 億日元) 的肺炎防治及紓困振興特別預算。本論文的研究目的在於評估這些經濟政策的效果，採用動態產業關聯模型推算整體經濟，企業經營以勞動所得的效益，進而推算就業人數的創造。透過研究的實證結果，再進一部探討COVID-19 對國際分工體制產生的影響。

Since the end of 2019, COVID-19 has developed into a global pandemic. This unprecedented catastrophe not only created mass casualties but also devastated the world’s economy. The scope of the impact of the virus is immense: it limits the ways of life, distorts the private consumption and business production, and it has severely affected the economy. To response to the COVID-19 crisis, countries across the globe attempt to minimize the economic loss with high budget fiscal measures, including Taiwan. The national pandemic response of Taiwan has effectively controlled the spread of COVID-19. Besides gaining international recognition on its pandemic response, the Taiwanese government also budgeted 1.05 trillion New Taiwanese Dollar (approx. 3 trillion and 750 billion yen) for the virus prevention and the COVID-19 economic stimulus package. The purpose of this research is to evaluate the effect of these economic policies with the Dynamic Input-Output Model. The model is used to predict the output of the employed population through the analysis of the overall economy, the business operations, and the returns of labor force income. With the outcome of the research, we can further examine the impact of COVID-19 on the global system of the division of labor.