東亞經濟整合的發展與課題（Evolution of East Asian Economic Integration and its Issues）

東アジアの経済統合の展開と課題

主導東亞經濟整合的是東協（ASEAN）。東協在2015 年創立了達到服務貿易自由化等目標的東協經濟共同體，與此同時，東協也與東亞主要國家簽署了5 個「ASEAN+1」的FTA，成為東亞經濟整合的中心。2010 年以來，東亞區域大型FTA 的TPP 與RCEP 展開相關談判。TPP 因包含高度自由化與新規範等項目，被視為21 世紀的經濟整合典範，儘管美國於2017 年1 月退出TPP，但其他11 國隨即開啟談判，同年11 月達成初步意向，2018 年3 月簽署TPP11，12 月生效。RCEP 則是納入ASEAN、中國、印度等全球新興市場與生產基地在內，以優勢人口數形成高效率生產網絡的全球最大經濟整合體， 然因印度反對高度自由化，至2019 年仍未達成協議。在保護主義盛行的氛圍中，RCEP 續以2020 年達成協議為目標，因此，也應關注不包括印度之外的RCEP15 國的動向。

ASEAN has played a leading role in the economic integration in East Asia. Following the creation of the ASEAN Free Trade Area, ASEAN established the ASEAN Economic Community in 2015 by taking the central position in economic integration in East Asia through five ASEAN plus 1 FTAs with main countries in East Asia. Since 2010, region-wide FTAs such as TPP and RCEP have been negotiated. TPP achieves high level of liberalization and includes new rules; therefore, they are called the Twenty-First century FTA. It is important to note that the USA withdrew from TPP in January 2017. Whereas, the remaining eleven members started TPP11 negotiation immediately and reached an agreement in November. The members then signed it in March of 2018 and TPP11 then went into effect in December of that year. On the other hand, RCEP is the largest FTA in terms of population and includes emerging markets and production bases such as ASEAN, China, and India. RCEP will surely contribute to formation of the efficient supply chains in East Asia; however, an agreement could not be reached by the end of 2019 because of India’s opposition to a high level of liberalization. Therefore, RCEP member countries, except for India, aim to reach an agreement by the end of 2020 in the midst of expansion of protectionism. Thus, RCEP15 becomes one of the feasible options to lookout for.