政治不確定性與企業投資：來自臺灣總統大選的證據

Political Uncertainty and Corporate Investment: Evidence from Taiwan Presidential Elections

本研究乃探討 1994 年至 2016 年間臺灣總統大選產生之政治不確定性與企業 投資水準間之關聯性。實證結果顯示，相較於非選舉年度，企業整體投資水準在選 舉年度顯著為低，其中，企業的資本支出投資水準較低，而非資本支出投資水準則 相對較高。再者，本研究亦發現總統大選年度發生政黨輪替時，僅能補捉到企業之 資本支出水準較高；而中央政府與企業總部之地方政府形成一致政府時，與企業整 體投資水準則具顯著正向關係。故本研究突顯企業在面對政治不確定性時，會採取 彈性的投資策略來對投資支出進行配置。

This study investigates the relationship between political uncertainty and the corporate investments level during Taiwan presidential elections from year 1994 to 2016. The empirical results indicate that compared with non-election years, overall investment level of business during election years is significantly lower. The investments reduction results from the lower level of capital expenditure investments and the higher level of non-capital expenditure investments. Furthermore, when ruling party affiliation switches during a presidential election year, this study only finds the level of corporate capital expenditure becomes higher. When the ruling party in the central government is the same as that of the local city where the corporate headquarters is located, the relationship between capital expenditure and overall corporate investment level is significantly positive. Therefore, this study highlights that firms may adopt flexible investment strategies to allocate investment expenditure when facing political uncertainty.