中國崛起戰略辯論中的台灣問題

The Taiwan Issue in the Debate on China's Rise

本文嘗試將認知論的觀點引入兩岸關係研究。主要論點為：兩岸之間政治僵局持續的一個主要原因是大陸當代的戰略分析家認識到解決台灣問題是中國崛起過程中的重要階段目標。因此逐漸將台灣問題納入中國對外大戰略之中，進而傾向於軍事戰略的角度來理解、分析、甚至預測兩岸關係的發展。這樣的發展可以追溯到1990年代中期大陸學界對中國崛起戰略的辯論。在中國未來崛起戰略的辯論中，「台灣問題」逐漸由純屬內政的層次被提升到中國對外戰略的層次，「收復台灣」不再只是中國完成民族統一大業的最終任務，而是中國未來與美日等國在亞太區域霸權競逐遊戲中的重要戰略目標。這些偏見的出現逐漸使大陸學界對兩岸關係的發展出現扭曲性的解釋，將台灣島內逐漸走向本土化的政治作為視為對中國崛起的最大威脅，也將台灣執政者在兩岸關係發展過程中追求台灣主體性與尊嚴的作為視為對中國國家安全的最大挑釁。

This paper attempts to utilize a cognitive approach to examine Taiwan-Chinarelations. The author assumes the deadlock between both sides can attribute to acommon view shared by strategic analysts in China that recovery of Taiwan is animportant step in the process of China’s rise. Strategic community in China beganto show interest in China’s rising strategy in the mid-1990s, with various scholarsdebating about the possibility and strategy of China’s rise onto the world stage as agreat power. Recovery of Taiwan, which was formerly considered as a purelydomestic issue, were interpreted by strategic analysts in Beijing as an importantstrategic objective that China has to achieve in the process of great-powercompetitions in Asia. This development unfortunately creates a distortedunderstanding of the rising national identity in the Taiwanese society. This iswhy Chinese leaders are more sensitive and intolerable to Taiwanese leaders’attempts to strengthen Taiwan’s self-identity and dignity, and consider suchpolicies adopted by the latter as direct threat to China’s national security.