中共對台嚇阻戰略：理論與實踐

China's Deterrence Strategy toward Taiwan: Theory and Practice

兩岸關係互動中基本上存在著「二種嚇阻，三方應對」的嚇阻架構，一種嚇阻是由中共實施，嚇阻的對象是台灣和美國，另一種嚇阻則是由美國和台灣實施，嚇阻的對象則是中共。以反獨為主軸的對台嚇阻戰略已經成為中共新領導集對台策略主軸，為了達成這樣的戰略目標，中共採取全面的嚇阻作為來達到嚇阻台獨的目標，這些嚇阻作為基本上包含了軍事力量、經濟力量、外交、法律及心理戰，透過多層面的嚇阻作為，建構中共反獨的嚇阻戰略。如果從嚇阻國民政府進攻大陸來看，中共冷戰時期的嚇阻戰略也能算是成功的，如果從嚇阻台灣宣布法理獨立來看，中共的嚇阻戰略至目前為止看起來也算是成功的。然而，透過強硬的嚇阻或許能夠達到維持和平的目標，但卻是一種不穩定的和平。一味的嚇阻恐怕只會失去更多的台灣民心，加深台灣民眾遠離中心的邊陲恐懼感，也就離一個中國愈來愈遠。強化中共自身的經濟建設與政治改革，尋求對台灣民意更多的體諒和尊重，減除對台灣社會呈現的打壓，以更平等的態度與台灣政府對話，才是避戰最好的方法，也是中共想要主導兩岸問題和平解決的重要關鍵。

There are two deterrence types and three players in the Taiwan Strait deterrence structure. One deterrence type is performed by China, for she wants to deter Taiwan and USA. The other is performed by the US and Taiwan to deter China. Anti-Taiwan independence has become the main theme of Chinese new leaders' Taiwan policy. In order to achieve this strategic goal, China has long adopted deterrence strategy to deter Taiwan from declaring Independence. China's deterrent behavior included military power, economic power, diplomatic isolation, legal war and psychological war. China's deterrence from Taiwan's recovery Mainland could be successful in the cold war era, and China's deterrence from Taiwan's declaring legal is also successful nowadays. Threatening deterrence maybe maintain the peace across Taiwan Strait, yet this kind of peace is unstable. A harsh deterrence could only hurt the feeling of Taiwanese and also strengthen Taiwanese fear of borderlandization. Enhancing China's economic power and political reform, looking for Taiwanese consideration and respect, reducing the pressure on Taiwanese society, and negotiating with Taiwan's government with more equal attitude are the best way to avoid war and solve cross-strait issue peacefully.