科學類博物館參觀之季節性探討

The Seasonality of Science Museum Visitation

「季節性」為觀光業一種暫時性的不平衡現象，影響旅遊供給各方面的行為，一直都是觀光休閒產業最重要的課題之一。博物館身為休閒市場的一員，其參觀活動同樣可能受到季節性的影響，本文之研究目的在於探討科學類博物館參觀的季節性現象。本文運用羅倫茲曲線及吉尼係數，測量並比較科學類博物館參觀活動年度的季節性不平均分布現象，運用時間序列之成份分解法，析出季節成分以辨識科學類博物館淡、旺季分布情形。結果發現科學類博物館有參觀季節性但不強烈、且參觀季節性之型態與穩定性有所不同，而暑假則是科學類博物館最大旺季。本文最後提出調整行銷策略、採取合作策略，及進一步探討影響科學類博物館季節性型態的因素等三建議。

Seasonality is a temporal unbalanced phenomenon of tourism, and it has always been a concern which impacts on all aspects of supply-side behavior in the industry. As a member of leisure market, museum visitation may also be influenced by seasonality. The objective of the study is to investigate the seasonality of science museum visitation. Lorenz Curve and Gini Coefficient are used to measure and compare the annual uneven distribution of science museum visitation, and Time Series Decomposition is used to extract seasonal component to identify the peak-season and off-season of science museum visitation. It is found that science museum visitation is slightly influenced by seasonality, and summer is the peak-season of science museum visitation. In addition, the pattern and stability of seasonality vary according to museums. Finally, three suggestions are submitted: adjust marketing strategies, adopt cooperation strategies, and further investigate the causes that influence the seasonality of science museum visitation.