中國援助與非洲石油：石油生產與價格的效果

China's Aid and Rich Oil in Africa: Effects of Production and Prices

中國於改革開放後的迅速成長，使得中國的國際角色漸漸由受援國轉變為援助國，而中國大陸在能源上的缺口，以及非傳統的援助方式，引起國際社會對於中國援助動機的質疑。有鑑於中國對於能源需求孔急，以及對於石油價格的敏感度高，本文利用「全球中國官方資助資料庫」（AidData's Global Chinese Official Finance Dataset 2000-2014, Version 1.0）所建立的縱橫斷面資料（time-series and cross-section data），檢驗兩個假設：第一，非洲的石油生產與中國對非援助有正面的影響|第二，石油價格與中國對非援助呈現正相關？作者以「二元勝算對數模型」（binary logit model）以及「隨機效應模型」（random-effect model）檢驗2000～2014年中國對54個非洲國家的援助，統計結果證實了本文的兩個假設。另外，雖然中國援助的金額與石油具有密切關係，但是中國給予非洲國家援助的金額，同樣地考慮當地的經濟情況，給予較為貧窮的國家更多的金援，而統計上，中國也沒有傾向給予威權國家更多的援助。

As a new but popular donor, China has taken on more responsibilities for development in poor countries, especially in Africa. However, due to the energy shortage and non-traditional aid policies in China, international society believes that such benevolent behavior is just a means of gaining easy access to oil resources in the region. By using a new dataset, AidData's Global Chinese Official Finance Dataset (2000-2014, Version 1.0), this paper examines whether China's aid is related to African countries' oil production using panel data. In addition, the author also argues that the world oil price level affects China's decisions regarding aid because in addition to its national priority of pursuing energy, China's aid is predominantly delivered by dual-role state-owned entrepreneurs (SOEs) that not only implement government policies to maintain national energy security but who also endeavor to maximize their profits. Oil prices matter because high oil prices harm China's energy security and the benefits of its SOEs as well. The author tests these hypotheses among 54 African countries (2000-2014) using binary logit and random effects models and the statistical results show that higher oil prices and oil production encourage more aid decisions, either with regard to the amount of aid or as to whether to provide finance or not. Finally, this paper finds that these countries' economic performances also affect China's decisions regarding the amounts of aid.