解析台灣民眾統獨偏好：一個兩難又不確定的選擇

Analyzing Taiwanese Public Opinion toward Future Cross-Strait Relations:Choice under Ambiguity and Uncertainty

過去諸多與台灣民眾統獨偏好相關的研究發現，「價值衝突」及「不確定性」可謂為民眾統獨偏好的兩大主要特質。本研究的目的即在探討該兩項機制如何影響台灣民眾的統獨偏好。以兩岸整合的各項層面為例（包括兩岸經濟、生活、思想、或政治條件相同），本研究利用條件式問卷題組及，分析在務實面考量下，各條件的變化如何影響民眾統獨偏好的測量值的點估計及其離散程度。具體的發現包括以下兩點：首先，就偏好測量值的點估計而言，情感或理念的因素，譬如台灣人或中國人認同等，對於民眾的統獨偏好仍具有決定性的影響；而務實面的考量中，譬如對大陸日後政治或經濟發展走向的評估等，亦對民眾的統獨立場有所影響。換言之，感性與理性層面的考量皆可能左右民眾的統獨偏好。

This article analyzes the extent to which ambiguity and uncertainty affect Taiwanese public opinion toward future cross-Strait relations. With respect to different conditions for future integration across the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, we adopt a set of survey questionnaires to explore Taiwanese unification-independence preferences. Then, by assuming that the latent sampling distributions of such preferences may comprise different means and unequal variances, we form a set of heterogeneous choice models to investigate the factors that may contribute to explaining the differences among means