應用隨機邊界模型探討收斂假說－－兼論人力資本、金融發展與經濟成長之關係

Applying the Stochastic Frontier Model to Test the Convergence Hypothesis: The Interrelationships among Human Capital, Financial Development, and Economic Growth

本文旨在建立隨機邊界產出成長率函數，在變動規模報酬的假設下，探討起始所得水準、實體資本、金融發展、人力資本與勞動力對各國經濟成長之影響，進而重新檢視收斂假說，並進行國家技術效率與總要素生產力分解之跨國分析。蒐集1980年至2000年74個樣本國家之平衡縱橫資料，實證分析主要發現有四：(i)實體資本與人力資本具有互補關係，金融發展與實體資本具替代性，但與人力資本呈互補關係；(ii)低、中所得國家皆呈現所得收斂現象，且低所得國家之收斂速度較快，而高所得國家則無所得收斂情形；(iii)高所得國家享有較高的資本邊際生產力，低所得國家則以勞動與人力資本的邊際貢獻較大，並享有規模經濟；(iv)全體國家之總要素生產力平均以每年3.52%的速度成長，其中以中所得國家速度最快；中、高所得國家主要成長來源皆為技術進步，低所得國家則為規模效果。

This study applies the stochastic translog production frontier under variable returns to scale to investigate the effects of initial income, capital stock, financial development, human capital, and labor on a country's economic growth, in which each variable is transformed by taking the first difference in order to delete any inherent non-stationarity. This modeling tests the convergence hypothesis and decomposes productivity change into various elements. We collect data from 74 countries, covering 1980-2000, and find evidence that capital stock and human capital are complements, and that financial development is a substitute for human capital, but a complement for human capital. This study supports the convergence hypothesis through low and middle-income countries, whereby the speed of convergence in low-income countries is faster than in middleincome countries, while this study rejects the hypothesis for high-income countries. We note that the marginal productivity of capital of high-income countries is the highest, and that the marginal productivities of labor and human capital of low-income countries are the highest. Moreover, the average growth rate of total factor productivity for the sample states is equal to 3.52% per annum.