臺灣就業和非就業之多元選擇、工資式的一般化兩階段估計、與樣本選擇偏誤成因

THEMULTIPLE CHOICE OF EMPLOYMENT AND NON-EMPLOYMENT, A GENERALIZED TWO-STEP ESTIMATION OFWAGE EQUATIONS, AND THE FACTORS OF SAMPLE SELECTION BIAS IN TAIWAN

本研究以臺灣之即時資料與修正資料為對象，討論貨幣政策法則內落後一期利率具顯著解釋能力，是因貨幣當局面對具序列相關之衝擊使然，抑或與貨幣政策慣性之性質有關。透過English et al.（2003）與Castelnuovo（2003）之架構，以前瞻式泰勒法則進行的分析指出，中央銀行利率平滑化措施，為落後一期利率在貨幣政策法則內具顯著解釋能力的原因。而改以不同利率平滑化與衝擊序列相關設定，或將股價變化納入貨幣政策法則內後，原有分析結論依然可以成立，顯示文中有關貨幣政策慣性之推論具有穩健性。以逐步擴大樣本進行的估計指出，貨幣政策慣性程度有隨時間而提高的變化，且未因2007年全球金融風暴而受到影響。此外貨幣政策法則內各參數估計值的顯著性，亦會隨時間改變而出現消長，這隱含臺灣貨幣當局之政策反應函數有隨經濟發展階段不同而改變之特性。

The purpose of this paper is two-fold: first, apply the multi-nominal logit model to estimate the attachment to various employment and non-employment sectors; second, adopt the generalized two-stage estimation approach to correct for selectivity bias in the wage equation of each employment sector. The employment section is classified as four mutually exclusive sectors of atypical/part-time, atypical/full-time, typical/part-time, and typical/full-time employment, while the non-employment section includes both sectors of unemployment and non-labor force. By fitting the related estimationmodels to household data from the Manpower Utilization Survey of Taiwan conducted in eachMay of 2011-2016, the results can be briefly summarized as follows: (1) Those with higher education level, married males, and single fathers, as well as generations X, Y, and Z, have a higher probability of attaining typical/full-time employment than their counterparts. (2) The two part-time sectors are found to have greater positive selection bias than the other two full-time sectors,mainly because the population wage dispersions of the former sectors are greater than those of the latter ones. (3) Of the four employment sectors, only the life-cycle wage profile of the typical/full-time employment sector is compatible with what is predicted in human capital theory. (4) Holding other things equal, the magnitudes of wage profiles by gender and marital status are found to be in the order of married male (; single father) > single male > single female (> single mom) > married female. (5) The county-level aggregate unemployment rate imposes a nonnegligible negative impact on the wage rate of each employment sector.