爭辯中的東南亞與中國關係：國際關係理論的模擬與應用

Debating Southeast Asia-China Relations: Simulation and Application of International Relations Theories

對於國際關係學界來說，「理論」被視為是用來解釋歷史、分析現勢、預測未來的重要知識工具。當前學界對於東南亞國家與中國的關係有許多不同的詮釋，但卻少有一套完整的說明來檢視理論工具與經驗事實之間的關係。有鑑於此，本文將以國際關係理論中的不同研究傳統作為立論基礎，試圖呈現由中國與東南亞關係所構成的可能區域場境。同時，本文將進一步據此分析構成東南亞與東亞區域和平與穩定發展的涉入國可能作法與策略。根據各種理論的爬梳後，本文認為，區域穩定的條件至少有五個：第一，美國需要提升對東南亞戰略部署承諾；第二，中國需減緩進攻性武器的發展與應用；第三，東南亞與中國經貿投資關係需改善並走向雙贏；第四，區域各國需要加速民主政治發展；第五，東協區域組織須能成為更有效的區域組織以協調歧異。反之，區域將難以走向和平與穩定。

In the academia of international relations, theories are important intellectual tools useful for examining history, analyzing current events and predicting the upcoming future. Although there are quite a few different theoretical interpretations of Southeast Asia-China relations, few of them offers a comprehensive picture that connects divergent theories with empirical evidence. This paper seeks to address this problem by presenting possible regional scenarios of Southeast Asia-China relations based on divergent approaches of international relations theories, as well as analyzing potential directions and strategies beneficial to regional peace and stability. Accordingly, this paper locates five conditions for regional stability: (1) the U.S. needs to increase commitment to strategic deployment in Southeast Asia; (2) China has to slow down the development and application of offensive military facilities; (3) trade and investment relationships between Southeast Asia and China need to be improved and adjusted to a win-win structure; (4) accelerating national democratic development in the region is needed; (5) ASEAN should be a more capable and effective regional organization for resolving disputes. Otherwise, it will be difficult for the region to attain peace and stability.