臺灣高教擴張對年輕世代薪資及職業聲望的影響：反事實的分析

Does a College Degree Still Pay? A Causal Analysis of the Impact of College Expansion on Earnings and Occupational Prestige in Taiwan

本文利用2003年及2009年「華人家庭動態調查資料庫」樣本，評估臺灣高教擴張對年輕世代的薪資與職業聲望的影響。從反事實分析架構的角度，本文主張要有效分析高教擴張對於臺灣大學畢業生的影響，應區分無論擴展與否都會上大學的「必為者」、因擴張而有機會大學的「順勢而為者」以及無論擴張與否都不會上大學的「必不為者」等三類人。透過結合配對法及DID模型之分析，研究結果發現高教擴張改善了「順勢而為者」的薪資與職業聲望，但對「必為者」則有直接或間接的負面影響。

This paper conducts a counterfactual analysis to estimate the effects of college expansion on earnings and occupational prestige of the young in Taiwan. The study uses two datasets collected by the Panel Study of Family Dynamics and a DID model for analysis. The study uses matching to identify three counterfactual groups: ''compliers,'' ''always-takers,'' and ''never-takers'' and then uses the DID model to estimate the proposed causal effects. The findings show that compliers benefit from college expansion in both earnings and occupational prestige of both the first and the current jobs. Always-takers' advantages in their first-job returns have been negatively affected by the expansion. In short, college expansion narrows the gap in socio-economic status between always-takers and compliers but increases the gap between those with and without college degrees.