大國崛起與絲路烽煙：從隋唐經營西域看權力轉移下崛起國對小國的政策

The Rise of a Great Power and the Silk Road Wars: The Strategic Choice of a Rising China towards the Serindia City-States during the Turks vs. Sui-Tang Power Transition Period

在美中權力轉移的時代關口，崛起國行為具有重要的理論與實務意義。本文將權力與文化的解釋共同納入理論框架，用突厥－隋唐時期的不對稱關係檢驗假說，探討在權力轉移背景下崛起國會對不同的小國採行何種政策，什麼因素決定了它對小國的政策。隋唐對西域綠洲國家的政策證實了基於權力的核心邏輯：兩大國權力對比決定崛起國的攻守傾向，從而產生它對小國的政策基調。塔里木城邦與高昌這組最相似案例否證了文化親和度的作用。以歷史啟示審視今日世局，在實力超越美國之前，中國將保持對美國的守勢與對小國的和緩政策。

In a world suffering from the incremental pressure caused by the transition of power between the United States and China, the behaviour of the rising power is becoming a significant issue both theoretically and practically. This paper attempts to explain what policies the rising power chooses to have towards different small countries and why it adopts them. We organize the factors based on the competitive perspectives of power and culture into one framework, and then test the hypotheses by analyzing the asymmetric interactions that happened during the power transition period between the Turkic Khanates vs. Sui-Tang China. The policies of Sui-Tang China implemented on the oasis city-states in Serindia (Xiyu) confirm the material logic: the power balance between the two giants determined the rising power's strategic tendency when facing the hegemon, which then generated the keynote of its policies for treating the small countries. However, the hypothesis involving cultural affinity is denied by the most-similar sub-cases of the Tarim states and Gaochang. Our findings suggest that, before China overtakes the US, it will keep a defensive strategic posture towards the US and adopt moderate policies towards lesser powers.